Live Updates: Jamaica Prepares for Direct Hit From Hurricane Melissa

The hurricane is expected to make landfall in St. Elizabeth parish, a coastal area of southwestern Jamaica about 75 miles west of the capital, Kingston. Some communities in St. Elizabeth had already lost electricity as early as 6 a.m. on Monday. Widespread outages, disruption of communications and impassable roads are likely.

Melissa has been lashing the Caribbean with heavy rain for days, and the latest forecast has predicted that it will have brought as much as 30 inches of rain to parts of Jamaica, and even more in some areas, before it moves north toward Cuba and the Bahamas. Cuba’s civil protection authorities have already ordered the evacuation of nearly 900,000 people living in the country’s eastern provinces.

Here’s what to know so far.

• Melissa is locked onto a path that is certain to strike Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly even the Bahamas, as an intensely destructive force throughout the next few days. Here’s what to expect when it makes landfall.

• A tropical storm warning was in effect early Monday in Haiti, where the authorities said on Thursday that three people had been killed in a landslide near Port-au-Prince. The Associated Press reported that at least one person had died in the Dominican Republic.

• Several Cuban provinces were under a hurricane warning on Monday and nearly 900,000 residents had been ordered to evacuate the island’s eastern provinces, a day after the U.S. Navy completed the evacuations of about 1,000 nonessential personnel from its base at Guantánamo Bay. About 3,000 people remain at the base.

• National Weather Service updates continue as usual during the U.S. government shutdown because they are considered essential for public safety. But the Weather Service is already operating at reduced staffing after the Trump administration slashed the number of employees at many of the agencies traditionally responsible for planning for and responding to natural disasters.

1. Kingston, Jamaica

   Residents at the Kingston waterfront ahead of the storm.

   Octavio Jones/Reuters

2. Old Harbour, Jamaica

   A resident walks through a flooded street.

   Matias Delacroix/Associated Press

3. Santiago de Cuba, Cuba,

   A resident worked to secure a roof ahead of the storm.

   Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

4. Bani, Dominican Republic

   Civil defense workers carry a small dog through flood waters.

   Dominican Civil Defense, via Storyful

5. Santiago de Cuba, Cuba

   Huge waves crashed against Cuba’s coastline.

   Reuters

6. Port Royal, Jamaica

   Residents load vehicles with bags of sand ahead of the storm. 

   Octavio Jones/Reuters

7. Kingston, Jamaica

   Norman Manley International Airport closed ahead of the storm.

   Matias Delacroix/Associated Press

8. Kingston, Jamaica

   A resident prepares a roof for the storm.

   Matias Delacroix/Associated Press

9. Kingston, Jamaica

   A palm tree bent by the wind.

   Ricardo Makyn/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

10. Kingston, Jamaica

    Residents stock up on supplies.

    Matias Delacroix/Associated Press

11. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

    A woman walks along a flooded street on Friday.

    Ricardo Hernandez/Associated Press

12. Kingston, Jamaica

    Fishermen securing boats on the shore on Saturday. 

    Octavio Jones/Reuters

13. Santiago de Cuba, Cuba

    Workers pruning trees ahead of the storm’s arrival on Saturday.

    Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

14. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

    A drone view shows a vehicle driving along a flooded street on Friday.

    Eddy Vittini/Reuters

15. Sabaneta, Dominican Republic

    Elevated water levels downriver from the Sabaneta Dam on Thursday.

    Jesus Frias/Reuters

16. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

    Street flooding in the capital city on Thursday.

    Eddy Vittini/Reuters

Storm surge, powered by sea level rise, “will be devastating as Melissa comes ashore,” said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center.

In 2012, when Hurricane Sandy slammed the east coast of the United States, 10 centimeters of sea level rise was found to cause an additional $8 billion in damage according to a 2021 study. “The fingerprints of the warming climate are clearly making this horrific disaster for Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas even worse,” Dr. Francis said.

Jamaica is also intermittently besieged by heavy rainfall and drought, which can overwhelm and deplete the country’s water supplies unpredictably, said Michael Taylor, a professor of climate science at the University of the West Indies in Mona, Jamaica.

Dr. Taylor added that years of prolonged heat waves, which have been extreme even considering the country’s tropical climate, have also put pressure on the country’s farmers and energy supplies. “Our infrastructure wasn’t built for the climate change era,” he said.

Other factors make the country especially vulnerable to the effects of storms in a changing climate. Hurricane Melissa’s intensity is fueled by exceptionally warm waters in the region. A 2023 study found that the warming planet has doubled the chances that Atlantic hurricanes will intensify in less than a day, which happened over the weekend.

Recent rainfall also means that the country’s soils are already saturated with water and won’t be able to absorb much more. But Melissa is expected to drop 30 inches of rain and Dr. Taylor expects the country will have worse floods and landslides as a result. Unstable soil means more trees and telephone poles will likely topple too, he said.

The potentially devastating confluence of these factors has been born out by past storms. In 2024, Hurricane Beryl damaged nearly 9,000 houses and caused $6.5 billion in damage.

“Beryl’s impact last year left us with so much damage that we’re only beginning to recover from,” Dr. Taylor said. The mental trauma from that storm, he said, has played a part in people responding so quickly to Melissa.

For people on small islands like Jamaica that can be smothered by a single storm, the effects can be inescapable. “Climate change is not distant,” he said, “it’s personal and it’s real.”

Monday: the Turn

Officials in Jamaica have warned residents not to venture outside as catastrophic, life-threatening flash-flooding and numerous landslides are expected from Monday through Tuesday.

This torrential rainfall will continue across Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba as the storm makes its slow turn north toward the southern coast of Jamaica.

As the storm edges close to the island Monday evening, destructive winds will arrive, especially in the mountains. Officials warn that these winds could last 24 hours or longer, leading to extensive damage to infrastructure, long-lasting power and communications outages, and isolated communities.

While the fiercest winds near Melissa’s center Monday morning were consistent with a Category 5 hurricane, forecasters warned that the storm is likely to fluctuate in intensity over the next 24 hours, possibly producing even higher wind speeds.

The hurricane will also drive a life-threatening storm surge onto the coast. The water, piled up near the eye and on the storm’s eastern side, is projected to rise nine to 13 feet above ground level over the next day.

Tuesday: First Landfall

The eye of Melissa is almost certain to make landfall on the south coast of Jamaica on Tuesday morning and pass over the north coast by Tuesday afternoon. While there is still a slight chance the center of the storm will slide around the island, forecasters say this will have little change in the overall threat.

The storm could weaken slightly before landfall, but officials emphasized that there is no practical difference between Category 4 or 5 intensity, because both can produce catastrophic wind damage. It is also very likely that the hurricane’s winds in the mountains will be considerably higher than those on the beaches.

The rainfall will continue, with more than 40 inches possible in portions of Jamaica. That could contribute to landslides, flash floods and loosening soil, and make trees easier targets for the winds. Haiti and the Dominican Republic will continue to endure heavy rainfall, and tropical storm-force winds (39 m.p.h. or higher) are expected there by late Tuesday.

The storm is likely to weaken slightly over Jamaica’s rugged terrain, yet forecasters still believe Melissa will reach southeastern Cuba as a Category 3 or higher. Once Melissa moves over Jamaica, a sweeping system off the United States coast is expected to provide an exit ramp, accelerating the storm from its current walking pace to something more like a sprinter.

Overnight Tuesday: Second Landfall

Overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday morning, the center of Melissa most likely will make a second landfall in Cuba, passing over the southeastern side of the country as it heads toward the Bahamas.

Cuba will see one to two feet of rain, a storm surge of six to nine feet along the southeastern shore, and destructive winds. The duration of intense weather, however, may not last as long as it did over Jamaica.

Wednesday: Third Landfall Threat

By midday on Wednesday, the storm will be swirling over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. A third landfall is possible on one of the islands if the center of Melissa moves directly over land. Either way, the storm will have weakened some, but damaging hurricane conditions are still likely. Flash flooding from four to eight inches of rain could fall Tuesday into Wednesday night across the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, along with a significant storm surge and destructive winds.

The torrential rain will begin to subside first in Jamaica, followed by Hispaniola and Cuba.

Thursday: The Final Path

Melissa’s quickening pace could put it in the vicinity of Bermuda by Thursday night, but this remains the point in the forecast where things are still the most uncertain. The agreement across most computer models — tracing the path over Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas — typically gives forecasters confidence in what to expect. In the latest model runs on Monday, the track has shifted slightly westward, away from Bermuda. Forecasters said that they will not feel 100 percent confident in the hurricane’s ultimate direction until Melissa finally turns north or northeast on Monday.

The chance that Melissa will hit the United States remains low.

As the storm transitions to a more typical system, it eventually could affect the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend.

And while heavy rain is forecast for the Eastern United States on Thursday and Friday, it is not from Melissa. A separate and more typical storm system is developing near or off the East Coast, which will draw in tropical moisture. This could lead to locally heavy rain and possible isolated flooding concerns across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The Guantánamo base has hurricane shelters and emergency supplies, particularly for those housed in the trailer parks around the facility. Its other vulnerabilities include its infrastructure, which makes its own water and power. If those plants or supply lines are damaged, people will need to rely on generators and bottled water until repaired.

There are none of those iconic tents that were set up in January and February in anticipation of a wave of migrants facing deportation. That wave never materialized, and the tents were packed away months ago. Dozens of ICE agents and Homeland Security contractors were evacuated Friday, a week after the last migrants held at Guantánamo were deported to Central America.

A group of 15 wartime detainees, including five men accused of plotting the Sept. 11 attacks, were being housed in a two-story steel and cement prison building that past commanders have described as safe for them and their Army guards. When not on patrol at the prison compound, those guards live in a hurricane-proof barracks and have a hurricane-proof dining facility at a site not far from the coast called Camp America.

“The slower a storm goes, the more time it has to dump a lot of rain in one place,” said Stephen Mullens, a professor at the University of Florida.

Tropical cyclones typically move across the Caribbean at an average speed of about 10 to 12 miles per hour, according to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the department of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.

On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm’s speed was one m.p.h.

“It was moving at maybe 10 m.p.h., and then in the last couple days it basically ground to a halt,” Mr. Klotzbach said.

He explained that the system was sandwiched between two separate areas of high pressure that caused the prevailing winds, which typically push storms along, to slacken.

“There’s a pebble in the stream, but the stream is stagnant,” he said. “There’s nothing pushing the storm along,” he added.

Tropical storms that stall can lead to prolonged rainfall over a confined area, increasing the chances for hazardous flooding. Imagine moving a garden hose quickly across a lawn so all areas receive some water, which is absorbed into the soil. But if you hold the hose over one spot for a long time, a pool of water forms.

The situation in Haiti and Jamaica is exacerbated by mountainous terrain that squeezes moisture out of the storm and can intensify rainfall rates. Forecasters predicted 20 or even 30 inches of rain in some isolated areas. Mudslides are possible on the mountainsides.

Prolonged winds are also a problem as they batter and weaken structures.

Stalling has resulted in some of the most destructive and deadly storms in history. Hurricane Dorian lingered over the Bahamas in 2019, pounding and soaking the islands at a near standstill. The year before, Hurricane Florence drenched the North Carolina coast for more than two days, and when Hurricane Harvey stalled over southeast Texas for days in 2017, it dumped up to 60 inches of rain in some spots.

Research has found that the average speed of tropical cyclones, which includes hurricanes, has slowed since the middle of the 20th century, and climate change has quite likely played a role.

Southwest Haiti and portions of Jamaica were bracing for “catastrophic” flash flooding and landslides from the intense and fast-developing hurricane, which has already killed at least four people.

Evan Thompson, director of Jamaica’s Meteorological Service, said hurricane conditions would be felt in Jamaica starting on Monday, and the storm is expected to move across the country on Tuesday. Strong winds were already being felt.

“There is a slight shift in the track, moving it a little west than where it was originally projected,” he said. “We earlier had said that it would make impact or landfall along the coast of Clarendon, but it seems now to be shifted more to Manchester.”

Both are parishes on Jamaica’s southern coast, with Manchester about 25 miles west of Clarendon. The island’s parishes are divided among three counties.

Meteorologists said the projections of up to 35 inches of rain were “unprecedented.”

“We are expecting that a lot of rainfall will continue to be dousing the island,” Mr. Thompson added.

In Cuba, which struggles to keep electricity running even in dry weather conditions, the authorities were cleaning streets to prevent clogged drains and flying debris, trimming trees and taking down traffic lights as coastal communities were ordered evacuated. Six provinces were under a hurricane watch.

In the Dominican Republic, nearly 4,000 people had been evacuated by midday Sunday, and four southern provinces were on red alert, said Gen. Juan Manuel Méndez, the director of the country’s Emergency Operations Center.

Some bridges and homes had been damaged by rain days before the storm’s official arrival, he said.

General Méndez urged citizens to be mindful that the enormous amounts of rain could cause landslides. He urged people to heed warnings and stay indoors and shared his own cellular phone number, in case anyone caught in a landslide needed to be evacuated.

“We can’t post a soldier in every city for people to stay in their homes,” he said.

A teenager who had been swimming in the sea near Santo Domingo was missing, and another man was swept away by a river, the Dominican authorities said.

In Haiti, the authorities acknowledged that they were unable to reach some communities that were under gang control.

About 2,000 people were in shelters across southern Haiti. Three people there had died, and 15 more were injured, the authorities said. A mudslide in Fontamara killed two of the three, and the third, a 70-year-old man, died when he was struck by a falling tree in Marigot in the south near Jacmel, according to Haiti’s civil defense agency.

In Praville, a hamlet in the northern Haitian city of Gonaïves, a wall collapsed under the force of runoff water, injuring 15 people, civil defense authorities said.

In Les Cayes, a city in southern Haiti, the main cemetery and a public school were flooded. People who had to evacuate after flooding in September were forced to leave their houses again.

Jenel Loubeau, a 28-year-old soccer coach in Les Cayes, said his house had taken in about a foot of water.

“I left and took all my important papers, because the flood was so bad, I was worried the whole house would fall,” he said. “The inside of the house was full of water. Everything is wet, my passport, documents and my food and other things.”

The United Nations World Food Program said it started sending emergency cash to Haitian communities in anticipation of the storm. About 9,500 households received a total of $900,000.

In the Dominican Republic, 4,000 families received cash assistance from the program, while the organization positioned food in eastern Cuba to feed 275,000 people for up to 60 days.

More relief items were being shipped to Barbados to send them to Jamaica if needed, the agency said.

In Jamaica, disaster management committees have been activated and are ready, and residents appear to be taking the storm seriously, with some beginning to panic, said Norman Scott, the mayor of Spanish Town, just west of the capital, Kingston.

“You can’t say you are 100 percent prepared, but we have done all the necessary preparatory work to see how much we can mitigate this extremely dangerous system,” he said. “I see a level of panic has set in. I passed a couple of supermarkets, grocery shops and the gas stations and, I tell you, they are flooded. They are overcrowded.”

Reporting was contributed by Camille Williams from Kingston, Jamaica; David C. Adams from Miami; André Paultre from Port-au-Prince, Haiti; and Hogla Pérez from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

That storm was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which was also known on the island as “Wild Gilbert.”

It made landfall near Kingston, with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour — only just qualifying as a Category 4 storm, which has winds of 130 to 156 m.p.h.

Gilbert tore across the entire island, displacing an estimated 500,000 people — around one-fifth of the population — and killing 45.

The island’s power and water systems were shut down, and even as the storm emerged from the west coast later that afternoon, its winds remained dangerously strong at 125 m.p.h.

In a later review, the Hurricane Center said the destruction in Jamaica offered “grim evidence” of the life-threatening effects and deep economic disruption a storm of that power could unleash.

As of Sunday morning, Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane specialist at the Hurricane Center, said that Hurricane Melissa was expected to have wind strengths at the highest end of a Category 4 storm as it nears Jamaica.

“In our latest forecast, the system looks to be a 155 miles per hour Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday morning,” he said. “And it’s looking increasingly likely that Jamaica will have a direct impact from Hurricane Melissa.”

Since the turn of the century, three Category 4 hurricanes have tracked close enough to batter the island, including hurricane Beryl in 2024, which skimmed the south coast, unleashing damaging winds, storm surge and flooding that caused more than $200 million of damage.

In 2007, Hurricane Dean followed a similar path near Jamaica, leaving behind around $300 million in destruction. Similarly, Hurricane Ivan in 2004, passed just south of the island, resulting in 17 fatalities and nearly $600 million in damage.

Though it was a Category 5 as it approached Jamaica, Hurricane Allen became a Category 4 as it neared the island in 1980. Despite not making landfall, the storm caused $100 million in damage and killed eight people.

The island has also withstood other damaging storms even if they were not classified as strong as a Category 4.

In August 1951, Hurricane Charlie slammed into Jamaica and was considered at the time to be the nation’s “worst hurricane disaster of the century,” according to a federal report.

Charlie packed winds greater than 110 m.p.h. and brought 17 inches of rain, causing an estimated $50 million (more than $620 million today) in damage to property and crops. The storm killed 152 people, injured 2,000 others and left approximately 25,000 residents homeless.

Charlie remained the last hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica until Gilbert arrived 37 years later.

A Category 3 hurricane in 1912 hit the island with peak sustained winds of 115 m.p.h. However, in a re-analysis by the Hurricane Center, it was noted that rainfall leading to flash flooding proved to be the most destructive, especially in the northwest side of the island.

Several towns were reported to have been wiped out by the winds and tidal waves and at least 100 lives were lost in that storm.

A hurricane in 1903 made landfall on Aug. 11 and, according to a monthly weather review at the time, caused a “heavy loss of life and property.” At least 65 people were killed.

It’s not always the strongest storms that deliver the harshest blows. Sometimes it is size that matters — as was the case with Hurricane Sandy.

In October 2012, Sandy hit Jamaica as a Category 1 storm. However, its vast size produced a maximum storm rainfall of more than 28 inches. It caused around $100 million in damage and killed three people.

Tropical Storm Gustav in 2008 illustrates that lower wind speeds can still be deadly.

Though never reaching hurricane strength, Gustav produced torrential rainfall, widespread flooding and mudslides, which caused approximately $210 million in damage and killed 15 people.

Melissa’s wind speeds doubled in less than a day. Around 11 a.m. Eastern time on Saturday, Melissa was a tropical storm with winds of 70 m.p.h., and it intensified just enough by 1:30 to become a Category 1 hurricane when its winds reached 75 m.p.h. It grew quickly over the next few hours — to a Category 2 by early evening, a Category 3 before midnight and a Category 4, with wind speeds of 140 m.p.h., by 5 a.m. Sunday. It is expected to intensify more.

Melissa has been a difficult storm to forecast, with the National Hurricane Center’s experts often pointing out that the models they use to predict a storm’s path and intensity have disagreed wildly at times this week. But as early as Wednesday, forecasters began to suggest the storm would, under the right circumstances, intensify quickly.

On Sunday, the storm inched west slowly, and was expected to drop more than 30 inches of rain over parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. It’s expected to pick up speed and turn toward Jamaica, hitting the island as a Category 4 storm early Tuesday.

Three other Atlantic hurricanes this year — Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto, none of which made landfall — rapidly intensified, as did some of the most powerful storms in recent memory.

Researchers have found that storms that rapidly intensify are associated with a disproportionate amount of damage and deaths, especially if the intensification happens close to shore. In 2023, Hurricane Otis was just off the coast of Acapulco, Mexico, when it grew from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours and then almost immediately lunged ashore, leaving a trail of destruction and killing dozens of people.

In 2023, a study in the journal Scientific Reports found that Atlantic hurricanes were becoming more likely to intensify rapidly. High ocean temperatures can help fuel the kind of explosive growth that leads to rapid intensification of storms, and oceans around the world have been warming because, in part, of human-driven climate change.

• Category 1: winds between 74 m.p.h. and 95 m.p.h.

• Category 2: winds between 96 m.p.h. and 110 m.p.h.

• Category 3: winds between 111 m.p.h. and 129 m.p.h.

• Category 4: winds between 130 m.p.h. and 156 m.p.h.

• Category 5: winds of 157 m.p.h. or greater.

To be considered a “major” hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center, a storm must reach Category 3 or above.

A hurricane’s strength matters because it helps meteorologists give residents in its path an idea of what type of damage is possible.

A Category 2 hurricane, for example, has the potential to cause major roof damage to homes, snap or uproot shallowly rooted trees, and knock out power in an area for days to weeks.

When a hurricane reaches Category 5 strength, the center can predict that “catastrophic damage will occur,” according to the Saffir-Simpson scale. Winds from a Category 5 hurricane can destroy homes, fell trees and power lines and possibly leave an area without power for weeks or months.

Because the hurricane category scale is based only on wind speeds, a number of factors are not considered.

“Wind is only one of four hazards, four primary hazards, associated with a tropical cyclone,” said Dr. Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center, using the broader term for a hurricane. “You can also have rainfall and flooding, storm surge, tornadoes, rip currents.”

Other hurricane-related dangers can occur after the storms have moved through an area.

When an affected area loses power, for example, many people often turn to portable generators to produce electricity. But when they are used improperly, they can lead to carbon monoxide poisoning.

And a weak Category 1 hurricane, or even a tropical storm, can still cause serious damage. A tropical storm can have wind speeds between 39 m.p.h. and 73 m.p.h. If the storm strengthens and produces winds up to 74 m.p.h., it becomes a Category 1 hurricane.

“There’s very little difference — and almost an imperceptible difference — between a strong tropical storm that has, say, maximum sustained winds of around 70 m.p.h., and a Category 1 hurricane,” Dr. Brennan said. “There’s enough uncertainty there that those distinctions — 1 m.p.h. or even 5 m.p.h. — doesn’t make a big difference.”