NFL playoff picture: Updated projections, chances to make the postseason

1 week ago 7

ESPN staffDec 12, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

We're officially through Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season and into Week 15, and the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LX are starting to come into view. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team field? Which still have work to do to ultimately get in? No one has clinched yet ... but a few teams are getting close.

We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. And we also have projected seeds.

Here's everything you need right now.

Last update: Dec. 12 at 7 a.m. ET

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AFC picture | NFC picture
AFC seeds | NFC seeds

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The Chiefs are out of contention for the AFC West title for the first time in 10 seasons. In order to earn a playoff berth, they'll have to be a wild-card team, which ESPN's FPI currently gives them only an 11% chance of becoming. Meanwhile, the Jaguars took control of the AFC South from the Colts (who were dealt a major blow with Daniel Jones' Achilles tear) in Week 14.

In Week 15, the Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win -- and clinch at least the playoffs with losses from the Texans and Colts. The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a win or losses from the Texans, Colts and Jaguars.

The Browns and Jets joined the Raiders and Titans in being eliminated from playoff contention last week.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

The Buccaneers' chances to win the NFC South took a hit Thursday when they lost to the Falcons to begin Week 15. However, they are still favored in the division over the Panthers.

The Lions' win in Week 14 over the Cowboys pushed them to 8-5 and improved their chances of making the playoffs. Another NFC North team was not so lucky. The Bears -- one week after surging to No. 1 in the NFC -- lost in a heartbreaker to the Packers. Green Bay has reclaimed its spot at the top of the NFC North but still has to face Chicago one more time before the end of the season.

The Commanders and Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 14, joining the Cardinals, Saints and Giants. In Week 15, there is only one clinching scenario for the NFC: The Rams can lock up a playoff berth with a win.

Projecting the AFC playoff seedings

It appears the race for the No. 1 seed will come down to the Patriots and Broncos, but the Broncos' win over the Raiders does give them the tiebreaker (better record in conference games).

Projecting the NFC playoff seedings

It will come down to the Packers and three NFC West teams for the first-round bye, but the Seahawks play the Rams and 49ers one more time before the end of the season.